$50bn by 2009

by Richard

I've just finished reading Guy Kawasaki's excellent "The Art of the Start" and, amongst plenty of other good stuff, is the following:

Every - literally every - entrepreneur shows up at Garage with a pitch that has 3 or 4 slides that "prove" the size of the market. Usually the slides contain a quote from a well known consulting firm such as Gartner, IDG, or the Yankee Group stating unequivocally that the size of the "shrimp-farming software market will be $50bn" within the next 4 years. It's a funny thing about these slides:

• Every market is going to be at least $50bn
• The forecast is 4 to 5 years in the future...short enough to make the forecast available, but long enough so that it is not provable
• No one in the room, even the entrepreneur, believes the numbers or thinks they are relevant

Having recently revisited some of the business plans I've been involved in over the years, it's uncanny how many of them feature a sweet little Datamonitor/IDG graph showing market growth hitting $50bn in a few years time. Had to laugh...

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Dreaming only requires imagination but daring to live your dreams requires real stugots. Godspeed to all at kitmondo with your venture. I will follow your journey with great interest.